Archive for the ‘Pricing’ Category

Market Dynamics: Gas 1

Jan 31

What is happening with natural gas? Where is the market compared to historical forward prices? How about historical spot prices? Customers have been asking for some context on where gas prices are compared to historical prices. Some context is always helpful.     The last 2 months were the the 2 lowest forward price months […]

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Northeast/NY Energy Prices this Week 1

Jan 6

We have heard from partners and customers across NY state this week who are expressing concern about energy price volatility reported in the news. Let’s put this week’s energy price volatility in perspective. It is true that, as Bloomberg reported, power prices shot up over $1,000/MWh yesterday. Bloomberg also reported (and Crain’s re-printed) news of […]

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Capacity: What you need to know now 1

Jul 10

Over the last 18 months, the dynamics of Northeast power and gas markets have changed in a few significant ways. First, as we’ve discussed before, prior to 2014 the Northeast was generally a Summer peaking region in terms of both demand and cost. (In other words, peak demand occurred in the Summer as did peak […]

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Predictable, reliable, improved energy outcomes: Step 3 1

Jun 26

As we mentioned in our first two posts in this series, when we poll energy managers about their biggest concerns about energy, the responses are “controlling costs”, “managing out-of-control costs” or a general concern about “rising costs”. There is always a concern that energy costs are completely out of control, and are impossible to predict […]

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NYISO Recent Demand Response History 1

Mar 25

We were just reviewing demand response histories at various ISOs. In New York in the last 18 months there has been one EDRP/SCR (demand response) event… guess what day that event occurred? Winter… January 7, 2014. Prior to last Winter, there were EDRP/SCR (demand response) events annually in July, usually over a one week period. […]

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Average prices: What they do not tell you. 1

Dec 23

Do average prices help customers forecast and evaluate their options properly? No. Here’s why. Consider the case of the statistician who drowns while fording a river that he calculates is, on average, three feet deep. If he were alive to tell the tale, he would expound on the “flaw of averages,” which states, simply, that […]

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Power Market Update: October 1, 2014 1

Oct 1

Market Summary Power prices have increased since last week. Winter forward prices (January, February, March 2015) are driving the entire forward strip higher. All other (non-Winter) months are at or near historical lows. News on gas prices is mixed since last week. Natural gas markets are up today after reports of cooler weather heading into […]

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Winter is The New Summer 1

Aug 11

We may be a bit of a broken record on this subject, but it bears repeating. Winter is the New Summer. In what respect? Well, the prices that we saw last Winter in NY resemble prices that we had grown accustomed to paying in this market during the Summer Peak Demand months of July and […]

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Forward markets March 2014: New York 1

Mar 18

What do forward markets look like now? Given the high cost of forward and day ahead power prices for the Winter months, it can be difficult to make sense of markets—where are we and where are we going with energy markets? Here’s a look at recent forward curves which shows on-peak power prices in New […]

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Looking to buy power? Today is not the day. 1

Dec 16

  Take a look at the recent run-up in electricity forward curves.     There are a number of reasons for this run-up: weather, speculation, gas withdrawals. Bloomberg’s article “Hedge Funds’ Natural Gas Bets Jump as Thermometer Drops: Energy“ summarizes all of the reasons for the run-up. We may see Winter power prices drop when […]

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